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RAINMAKER

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21 Percent, GOP, Now What?

Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:47 PM EDT
politics, obama, democrats
By Rainmaker

It wasn't just Bush the voters were sick of. Close to hitting rock bottom GOP is in dire need of a new image.

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It may not be exactly what Obama meant when he said "change", but it is certaintly "change you can believe in", and it is exactly what Bob Dylan was singing about in The Times They Are A'Changing:

With the Republicans down to 21% of the American population in the latest Washington Post poll they are de facto reduced to a minority.

The situation has the GOP scrambling to mount a come-back through an initiative called National Council for New America
.

The aim is to restore the tainted image of the Republican Party.

The new majority: Independents

More importantly, Independents are now the largest group, surpassing both those who identify as Democrats and Republicans, which could pave the way for a third party in a country traditionally locked in a two-party system.

The Republicans will need to engage the Independants, so whether or not a new party can be formed on the basis of the Independent vote, these voters have become the most important factor in US politics.

Other notable trends:

Since 2003 Hispanics and Latinos have surpassed African Americans as the largest ethnic minority in USA, constituting 15.1% of the total United States population or 45.4 million people according to the 2007 American Community Survey by the United States Census Bureau.

At the same time the Washington Post poll indicates that views among Americans are changing on issues like gay marriage, gun control, immigration, marijuana.

Consensus: Liberal and progressive values

With almost half of all American supporting gay marriage this issue is, for the first time in history, more popular than not.

Legalizing marijuana is still trailing behind, but if the current trends continue USA could be ready to make that move in a couple of years.

Support for legalizing illegal immigrants is staggering, but has always been among the preferences of Americans, but at the same time a majority favours stricter border control.

Three-quarters of Americans favor federal regulation of greenhouse gases.

Two-thirds support establishing relations with Cuba.

Strongholds: Torture and gun control

It's as if the Summer of Love just got a sequel, but this time without hippies, flower power and psychedelic concerts. This time it's purely political, and the main character is an African-American president utilizing the voice of a grass roots movement through new Internet media, not a guitar hero or a civil rights leader.

After the magic 100 days in office Obama's job approval rating is at a whopping 69 percent with only 26 percent disapproving of which most must be assumed to overlap the 21% who will identify themselves as Republicans.

Subsequently, we must assume support for Obama is high among Independents. Republicans are at a dismal 30 percent approval and 64 percent disapproval rate, confirming that Obama has a strong grip on Independents.

Still, there are some trends to break the pattern: Support for increased gun control is traditionally strong among Americans, outweighing the opposition, but the numbers in support for gun control have dropped since 2000, testifying to the importance of strong lobbying.

Also, about half of all Americans are not entirely ready to abandon the use of torture.

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  • Public Discussion (19)
Rainmaker

Things are certainly changing... but into what?

  • 2 votes
Reply#1 - Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:52 PM EDT
Captain Amazing

Rainmaker, I like your articles. They are interesting and thought-provoking.

I have a feeling we might see a rise in interest for the Libertarian Party. I consider myself a Democrat, but I am respectful of Libertarians. One thing to consider is that most of the issues on the rise are civil liberties. People generally don't want to be told what they can't do. Libertarians can play to Republicans with small, low-spending government ideals while simultaneously playing to Democrats with protecting civil liberties and non-interventionist foreign policy ideals. Everyone gets to keep their guns and marry whomever they wish and the country won't start needless wars and so on.

I believe in government programs and regulation, so a Libertarian ticket most likely wouldn't work for me, but the concept of a new party gaining favor in the public eye is kind of exciting nonetheless.

  • 3 votes
#1.1 - Fri May 1, 2009 3:51 AM EDT
Rainmaker

Captain Amazing, thank you for responding and for the kind words about my writing. The truth is I pick up a lot of inspiring information and perspectives here on Newsvine and elsewhere on the web and merely process it to try to get to the bottom of a topic.

Re: The Libertarian Party. I would like to know what is required to have a Libertarian in Congress. As I understand it you currently have 1, right?

Are there any states in which the Libertarian Party could likely gain leverage, and what would that mean in terms of congressional power according to the political system in the USA?

This poll on The Libertarian Party website, while not statistically reliable, indicates that Libertarians are split down the middle on the torture issue ("Is waterboarding torture?") along the lines of the general numbers for America, with a slight overweight of people voting it is, in fact, torture. Do you know what is the official position of the party leaders, if there is any?

non-interventionist foreign policy ideals

Does non-interventionism exclude intervention in any and every instance where USA is not directly involved, or would UN sanctioned humanitarian interventions still be on the table in a Libertarian America?

I believe in government programs and regulation, so a Libertarian ticket most likely wouldn't work for me

Libertarian fiscal policy seems to match what we in Europe, confusingly, calls liberalism or ultra-liberalism, i.e. minimal government interference in the private sector. It is not the same as liberalism in the American political language, which is more equivalent to Democratic Socialism or New Labour (traditional version, not post 9/11 Blair style New Labour).

To cut through the confusion: Do libertarians oppose, for instance, the TARP and regulation of Wall Street?

  • 2 votes
#1.2 - Fri May 1, 2009 4:12 AM EDT
Captain Amazing

I like your questions, and I will answer them the best I can, but I will also say that I am no expert on libertarianism. To me, the leader of the Libertarian Party is is Ron Paul, who is actually a registered Republican in congress. He ran for President as a Republican this last election, but he ran as a Libertarian in '88. While I have no idea of any official numbers, I believe he is not alone in having Libertarian views in Congress. You pretty much have to be registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or a Connecticut For Lieberman Party to be elected to congress.

Ron Paul is very anti-torture. http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul185.html This is a link to an article that he wrote about the issue of torture in 2004. That doesn't mean that all Libertarians are anti-torture (unfortunately). In fact, most Libertarians have generally conservative views. As for Ron Paul's non-interventionist views, it would more than likely extend beyond not starting needless wars. I have heard Ron Paul say that given the opportunity, he would get the US out of the UN. While, I disagree with this, his reasonings are not completely unfounded.

The thing I like about Ron Paul is that he backs up all of his stances with facts and history. I might not always agree with him, but I respect the hell out of him for not regurgitating talking points like some of our Republicans in Congress. I can actually give you links to some youtube videos of him on a radio show a little over a week ago talking about these points. If you feel like killing 20 minutes or so, I can give them to you.

The fiscal policy of Libertarians in general would prevent them from supporting anything they would consider needless spending, which would include regulation and bailouts. I wish I knew more, but like I said, I'm really no expert.

  • 2 votes
#1.3 - Fri May 1, 2009 5:18 AM EDT
Rainmaker

Thanks for answering.

I have watched a couple of interviews with Ron Paul, also the infamous one where he had the 9/11 Truth Movement thrown in his face on whatever channel it was.

If you like, please post the vids. I will check them out. I took a test online, which compared my views to those of Ron Paul. Much closer match than Obama, actually.

The thing I like about Ron Paul is that he backs up all of his stances with facts and history

In Europe we used to say that someone like that couldn't win in America, an intellectual or academic. Look what happened to Gore, Kerry and so forth. Obama put us to shame.

To me that was crazier than the fact that he is African-American, because I had done the math, and the demographics supported a win. But a professor? C'mon... that was almost too far out to believe.

(We have prejudiced about Americans as well. We tend to think of you guys as shallow, you know. Sorry about that; it's TV and Hollywood. But I already see a lot of progress.)

  • 3 votes
#1.4 - Fri May 1, 2009 5:31 AM EDT
Captain Amazing

Part one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ca8274tKej8

Part two: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6etSBfKABZM (this one talks more about torture and Libertarianism in general)

I know that FOX News ran a story during the Republican primaries in which they took a clip of Ron Paul at one of the debates saying that we were attacked 9/11 because we were over there in the Middle East, and because our past involvement in the Middle East has caused a great hatred for America. FOX New took this as Ron Paul suggesting the United States had a hand in the attacks and ran a smear piece about him being a 9/11 truther in an attempt to discredit him. God forbid someone at those debates actually pay attention and present facts to answer questions.

That being said, there is also a video of him being approached on a college campus by a group of 9/11 truthers, and he told them that they should always explore multiple options and to not blindly trust everything a government tells you. He has, to the best of my knowledge, never even hinted at 9/11 being an inside job. I thought it was despicable of FOX News to run that piece.

Anyway, I voted for Obama. I would have voted for Obama if he was running against Ron Paul. I'm not trying to say that Ron Paul would be the best candidate ever, but I don't want FOX News trying to smear the guy either.

Rant aside, I think you have every right to view Americans as generally shallow. I love it here, but I hate the glorifying of celebrity that takes place, particularly with reality TV shows. I really don't see the interest in the Real Desperate Housewives of Orange County (or whatever it's called).

By the way, my Grandmother was Danish. I believe I went there once as a child, but I have no memory of it. I would love to go back some day.

  • 3 votes
#1.5 - Fri May 1, 2009 5:58 AM EDT
Rainmaker

Thanks, Captain

I liked the ending to this one. Ron Paul gets some love from Hillary, and she actually says his candidates were the most enthusiastic she'd seen!!!

  • 1 vote
#1.6 - Fri May 1, 2009 6:35 AM EDT
krishna-167929

The fiscal policy of Libertarians in general would prevent them from supporting anything they would consider needless spending, which would include regulation and bailouts. I wish I knew more, but like I said, I'm really no expert

I find many of the views of the Libertarisans quite appealing. I left the Democratic Party and became a Libertarian.

However, the American political system is structured to strongly favour a 2 Party sytem. It is almost impsssible for a third Party to have any power. (If the Republican Party weakens even more and disappears, then-- at least based upon the past U.S. history-- another Party would appear to challenge the Democrats. (If the country countinues moving toward the left, it might even be possible for the Republican Party to disappear, and a new Party to form to the Left of the Dems.

  • 1 vote
#1.7 - Sun May 3, 2009 9:13 AM EDT
Reply
Mars313

He had alot to say.
He had alot of nothing to say.
Well miss him.
Were gonna miss him

So long.
We wish you well.
You told us how you werent afraid to die.
Well then, so long.
Dont cry.
Or feel too down.
Not all martyrs see divinity.
But at least you tried.

Standing above the crowd,
He had a voice that was strong and loud.
Well miss him.
Ranting and pointing his finger
At everything but his heart.
Well miss him.
Were gonna miss him

No way to recall
What it was that you had said to me,
Like I care at all.

But it was so loud.
You sure could yell.
You took a stand on every little thing
And so loud.

Standing above the crowd,
He had a voice so strong and loud and i
Swallowed his facade cuz I'm so
Eager to identify with
Someone above the ground,
Someone who seemed to feel the same,
Someone prepared to lead the way, with
Someone who would die for me.

Will you?
Will you now?
Would you die for me?
Dont you @!$%#in lie.

Dont you step out of line.
Dont you @!$%#in lie.

Youve claimed all this time that you would die for me.
Why then are you so surprised when you hear your own eulogy?

You had alot to say.
You had alot of nothing to say.

Come down.
Get off your @!$%#in cross.
We need the @!$%#in space to nail the next fool martyr.

To ascend you must die.
You must be crucified
For your sins and your lies.
Goodbye...

~Tool

  • 3 votes
Reply#2 - Fri May 1, 2009 12:03 AM EDT
Yesse

Hopefully a more progressive America. For the last 8 years, it seems that America stopped developing and there are countries that are going supass us soon in areas that the US have been the leader of.

  • 3 votes
Reply#3 - Fri May 1, 2009 12:46 AM EDT
Rainmaker

Hopefully. I wish you all the best.

  • 1 vote
#3.1 - Fri May 1, 2009 4:49 AM EDT
Reply
krishna-167929Deleted
3sheets2thewind

I hope that the GOP keeps listening to their leader Rush and FOX News so more and more 'real' Americans quit the party.

Never count the GOP out they rose from the ashes of Nixon with Reagan and they are capable to do so again.

With a slick talking politician with the less government is good and less taxes will get our country moving again rhetoric.

With out explaining that taxes mean services and never telling us what services that will be cut and less government when they mean is less government in business as in oversight and regulations, tainted food is there a connection?

  • 3 votes
Reply#5 - Fri May 1, 2009 4:47 AM EDT
Rainmaker

Thanks for commenting, 3s2w,

Never count the GOP out they rose from the ashes of Nixon with Reagan and they are capable to do so again.

Good point. They have proven they have the world's most powerful spin machine, and we do live in a hyper-mediated culture, where one man with charisma can make a huge difference... for better or worse.

  • 3 votes
#5.1 - Fri May 1, 2009 4:50 AM EDT
dacincykid

Its going to take one hell of a spin to get out of this hole they dug for themsleves. Only way I can see that happeneing is a complete collapse on the other side.

  • 2 votes
#5.2 - Fri May 1, 2009 8:17 AM EDT
Celestina

Well, right now we are seeing what happens when they unexpectedly lose their death grip on the American psyche. On the one hand you have the most radical elements foaming at the mouth as they hope that an increase in the volume and fervor of their rhetoric will bring the faithful back into the fold. On the other hand, we have the more sensible element of the Republican party trying like hell to distance themselves from the fanatics (such as Arlen Specter's defection, just for one example). Meanwhile, the Democrats have finally produced the impossible: a leader who understands the importance of effective marketing. More improbable, it seems, than a black or highly educated leader.

It could turn around, of course. Obama could seriously offend his supporters (he has done so a few times already, but so far his hits are outpacing his misses). The fire and brimstone rightwingers could manage to stumble upon some as yet unexploited primal instinct in the American collective consciousness. But I think their only real hope is to ditch the loons and return to presenting themselves as fiscal conservatives. It would help if they actually meant it, of course.

The Libertarians have a lot of appeal, in that regard, but most Americans are really not ready to have everything privatized. We like our parks and wildlife preserves, we like having some protection from Big Business from the government. I think they could go a long way to replacing the place the Republicans once held, but they would have to be willing to soften their stance somewhat.

  • 1 vote
#5.3 - Fri May 1, 2009 2:12 PM EDT
krishna-167929

Thanks for commenting, 3s2w,

Never count the GOP out they rose from the ashes of Nixon with Reagan and they are capable to do so again.

Good point. They have proven they have the world's most powerful spin machine, and we do live in a hyper-mediated culture, where one man with charisma can make a huge difference... for better or worse.

The Republican Party might disappear--but IMO its more likely that it will not. Rather, it may stay weak and out of power for a while. Then, it may come back into power. trends in AMericsan politics are not really a straight line over time, but rather its more like a pendulum-- swinging back and forth between liberal and conservative polls. (Bush and the neo-cons were a departure-- they are often labled "Conservative" but they are not traditional American conservatives),

  • 1 vote
#5.4 - Sun May 3, 2009 9:17 AM EDT
krishna-167929

Well, right now we are seeing what happens when they unexpectedly lose their death grip on the American psyche.

I wonder if it is accurate to say that the neocons had a death grip onthe American psyche? Bush was elected with very close to 50% of the vote. And as his second term progressed, his popularity dropped-- toward the end I believe his approval rating was extremely low-- perhaps 14%?

He and his supporters controlled the reins of government-- but if the polls are to be believed, they didn't have much control of the "hearts and minds " of American voters.

  • 1 vote
#5.5 - Sun May 3, 2009 9:26 AM EDT
Reply
Edward-453134

The advantage of being an independent voter, you don't have to remain loyal to any one party. Why remain loyal to a party who refuses to work with the other party to get things done, that will benefit all Americans?

  • 2 votes
Reply#6 - Fri May 1, 2009 8:56 AM EDT
krishna-167929

The advantage of being an independent voter, you don't have to remain loyal to any one party. Why remain loyal to a party who refuses to work with the other party to get things done, that will benefit all Americans?

It seems that more and more Americans are thinking that way. Even though Obama is a Democrat, many people who voted for him were not Democrats-- and did not vote for him out of loyalty to a Democratic Party, but rather because they liked him. (Or-- in same cases, because they were unahppy with Bush and he represented a significant change from Bush's policies-- McCain would've made some changes, but would probably continue most of Bush's policies).

  • 1 vote
#6.1 - Sun May 3, 2009 9:20 AM EDT
Reply
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